Latest Articles & Publications

The Tax Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2025: Concerns Regarding Due Process, Judicial Oversight, and Taxpayer Rights

Joint Press Release The Tax Laws (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025: Concerns Regarding Due Process, Judicial Oversight, and Taxpayer Rights Islamabad, 7th May 2025—Tax Payers Alliance Pakistan (TPAP) and the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) jointly express serious concerns over the recently issued Tax Laws (Amendment) Ordinance, 2025. Both organizations believe that certain provisions within the Ordinance could potentially affect fundamental legal safeguards and principles that are essential for a fair and transparent tax system. The Ordinance, which amends Sections 138 and 140 of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 (XLIX of 2001), has prompted considerable discussion among legal experts, tax professionals, businesses, and civil society. While its stated goal is to expedite tax collection and improve enforcement, stakeholders are concerned that it may have implications for taxpayer rights and procedural due process. Key Amendments of the Ordinance: Section 138(3A): Allows for immediate enforcement of tax liability where the issue has been decided by a High Court or the Supreme Court, regardless of contrary rulings, timelines, or procedural norms. Section 140(6A): Enables swift recovery actions under similar conditions, potentially limiting a taxpayer’s opportunity to contest or seek relief. Raja Amer Iqbal, Chairman TPAP, notes that “these amendments will further marginalize existing taxpayers and discourage potential taxpayers from entering the tax base. Such policies may yield short-term revenue gains but will have negative ramifications on economic growth, exacerbate the parallel economy, and stifle private sector investment, including local and foreign. Ultimately, this could lead to increased unemployment among the youth,” He further mentions that, “a balanced approach is crucial to fostering a conducive business environment and sustainable economic development.” Legal and Constitutional Considerations: These provisions grant the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) expanded authority to enforce recoveries even when a taxpayer may be seeking appellate review or pursuing legal remedies. This raises constitutional and legal concerns, particularly regarding the right to a fair hearing and due process. In the landmark case of Elahi Cotton Mills Ltd. v. Federation of Pakistan (PLD 1997 SC 582), the Supreme Court emphasized the necessity of due process in tax recovery proceedings, underscoring that taxpayers must be afforded a fair opportunity to contest assessments before enforcement actions are initiated. Several legal professionals have noted that the Ordinance appears to override established judicial precedents and procedural safeguards. The principle that individuals should have the opportunity to be heard before enforcement action is taken is a cornerstone of administrative justice. Curtailing this right may impact public confidence in tax administration and the authority of the judiciary. Risk of Disproportionate Enforcement: Empowering tax authorities to recover liabilities immediately, even in the presence of ongoing legal challenges, may increase the risk of overzealous enforcement. There is concern that such discretion, without adequate checks and balances, could result in unintended consequences, particularly for compliant taxpayers facing disputed assessments. Over 108,000 tax cases are currently pending in various courts across Pakistan, involving approximately Rs4.457 trillion in revenue. This backlog indicates systemic challenges in tax dispute resolution and underscores the need for balanced enforcement rather than expedited action without recourse. Impact on Economic Climate: Predictability and fairness in tax administration are crucial for fostering business confidence. Sudden enforcement actions, especially near fiscal year-end, may be perceived as efforts to meet revenue targets without adequate taxpayer facilitation. Such perceptions could discourage investment and create uncertainty among both domestic and international investors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that Pakistan’s narrow tax base and challenges in tax administration contribute to economic vulnerabilities. In its recent assessment, the IMF noted that strengthening governance and ensuring fair tax practices are crucial for fostering a conducive investment climate. Stakeholder Perspectives: TPAP and PRIME, along with allied organizations, have emphasized the need for balancing revenue imperatives with constitutional protections and judicial oversight. Legal experts have also raised caution against legislation that could appear to diminish the judiciary’s role in adjudicating tax matters. A well-functioning taxation system should encourage voluntary compliance through transparency and fairness. The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) has expressed concerns over abrupt tax enforcement measures, stating that such actions can undermine business confidence and deter investment. The FPCCI advocates for a balanced approach that ensures compliance while safeguarding taxpayer rights. International Comparisons: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recommends that tax administrations adopt transparent and fair procedures, ensuring that taxpayers have the right to appeal and that enforcement actions are proportionate. These best practices aim to build trust in the tax system and encourage voluntary compliance. Call for Reassessment: Under the many reforms suggested by commissions and donor reports, an element of certainty and transparency was highlighted. Moreover, any change in the tax code, with the exception of Finance bill/budgets, was discouraged. Despite FBR being in the process of formulating budgetary proposals, sudden enforcement of major changes in compliance laws does not only jeopardize the fair and transparent fiscal process but also increases uncertainty about tax laws. Businesses are already overburdened with predatory tax practices such as business-choking WHT tax regimes, excessive documentation, higher import stage taxes, while refunds and rebates, which should be swift and automated, are stuck and delayed beyond their normal timeframe. Such abrupt measures would only increase distrust on the government and increase informality in the economy and retard growth. In view of these concerns, TPAP and PRIME jointly urge the government to: Ensure taxpayers retain the right to be heard before enforcement actions. Align enforcement mechanisms with due process and judicial safeguards. Maintain the independence and authority of the judiciary in tax-related matters. Foster a collaborative approach that supports long-term tax compliance. The government has previously stated its commitment to promoting business and streamlining refund processes, as noted in the Revenue Division Yearbook 2023–24. In this context, the Ordinance’s timing and scope may appear inconsistent with those stated objectives. Effective tax administration must balance the need for timely revenue collection with the obligation to uphold taxpayer rights and legal safeguards. TPAP and PRIME encourage an inclusive dialogue involving policymakers, legal experts, and civil society

Read More »

Supply-Driven Inflation: Anchored Expectations and Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Response

Policy Note Supply-Driven Inflation: Anchored Expectations and Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Response Author: Asad Ejaz Butt Setting the stage The 2021-2022 inflation was an extraordinary event. One of the reasons it became special and a subject of interest for economists was that it succeeded COVID-19, which combined features of both a demand and supply-side shock. The Russia-Ukraine that started in Feb 2022 became the basis of a commodity super cycle that sent inflationary shockwaves to nearly all major economies in the world, including the US where CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. However, the uniqueness of this event was not in the making of inflation but rather in the manner in which it tapered-off starting FY 2023. As geopolitical tensions rise again, it is important for central banks to rationalize their inflationary expectations, and understand the mechanics of inflation, particularly its supply-side antecedents, to make a pre-emptive approach and draw up monetary policy responses that can navigate the impending challenge of inflation. In the current inflationary round, the supply-side dynamics may couple with, or be compounded by a tariff regime that is setting in within major import markets of the world. Tariffs will have both inflationary and distortionary impacts, but for this note, I’d focus on inflation alone and the circumstances that led to the 2021-2022 episode, and raise a few points of caution for the policy-maker. Figure.1. Core and Headline Inflation Source: FRED and author’s own calculations The Classic Phillips Curve for the US When inflation was rising rapidly in 2021, it was predicted that a sustained period of high unemployment would be required to bring inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Such predictions closely aligned with the findings of the classic Phillips curve that hypothesizes the presence of a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. However, inflation has declined significantly without a notable rise in unemployment. Unemployment declined steadily after peaking at around 14.8% in March, 2020. It remained low, fluctuating between 3.6% and 3.9% through 2021 and 2022 which is a good starter to the discussion about the 2023 disinflation being cost-free – was it? The big question that the preceding context raises is whether the economists overestimated the persistence of supply-side shocks and the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment. The empirical evidence favors the notion that the Phillips curve was flatter indicating a low sensitivity of inflation to changes in unemployment, and the fact that inflation expectations were strongly anchored around the 2% target. There predictive models were wrong as the economists failed to account for the supply-side antecedents of inflation. In the discussion below, I would attempt to fill the missing parts of the inflation puzzle and highlight factors that led to the discrepancy between the actual costs of disinflation versus costs estimated by the economic analysts. Figure.2.  Wage Growth and Unemployment Rates in the US Source: FRED and author’s own calculations Discussion Supply-chain disruptions and energy price shocks were less persistent than anticipated. This reduced inflationary pressures without requiring higher unemployment to cool demand. Energy prices dropped significantly from over $120/barrel in June 2022 to $70-$90/barrel in late 2023. Global supply chain pressures also normalized by mid-2023. Economists missed the mark when it came to the duration of such shocks. The 70s experience did favor longer supply-shocks that had an unemployment cost associated with disinflation. It would be interesting to dig deeper into this to analyze if unemployment would have risen eventually and persisted at those levels if energy prices continued to rise or stay at higher levels? Figure.3. Brent Crude Price Source:  FRED The labor market showed signs of resilience as return of the workers to the labor market kept wage growth at moderate to low levels despite low unemployment. The macroeconomic theory indicates that in a low unemployment environment, wage growth would be high as firms would have to pay more to extract effort. However, such pressures on wages, that are usually characteristic of low unemployment, were averted by factors including labor hoarding by firms, and return of workers to the labor market after COVID-19. Wage growth (year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings) decelerated from 5.9% in March 2022 to 4.3% in Oct 2023 indicating easing labor market pressures, and lower rate of inflation without an accompanying employment sacrifice. High credibility of the FED was assistive in anchoring inflation expectations around the FED target of 2%. Fed’s credibility coupled with an aggressive communication strategy seems to have set in an expectations regime that limited second-round effects from wage-price spirals (wage growth = price growth). This is an outcome of the fundamental policy shift from adaptive to anchored inflation expectations. An inflation-targeting central bank and anchoring of inflation expectations were theoretical constructs prior to the 2021-2022 inflation, however, the ideas came to life as unemployment remained near historic lows while inflation tapered-off as measured by the 5-year breakeven inflation rates that remained stable around 2%. Policy Implications One of the critical lessons for policymakers is to stop looking away from supply-side dynamics. They must account for the transitory nature of supply shocks in future inflation forecasts and avoid banking too heavily on demand-side measures. The supply-side dynamics can be a good starting point of the conversation about monetary policy tightening as policymakers can attempt to rule out the possibility of a supply-driven inflation before they throw resources at the prospect of disinflation through an interest-rate hike. Secondly, one can also identify the need to revisit some of the modelling assumptions and findings of the Phillips curve which is necessary to vindicate the theoretical relationship between unemployment and inflation in very special situational contexts. Some questions that can be considered are whether the standard assumptions and findings of the Phillips curve hold in the case of supply-side shocks and see if this relationship changes when the supply-side shock is accompanied, or preceded by a demand-side dynamic. So, it could be argued that traditional models may overstate the trade-off between unemployment and inflation which necessitates revision of frameworks to reflect structural changes

Read More »

Third Edition of Towards Broad, Flat, Low-rate and Predictable Taxes

Third Edition of Towards Broad, Flat, Low-rate and Predictable Taxes The study titled “Towards Broad, Flat, Low-rate and Predictable Taxes” by Huzaima Bukhari and Dr. Ikramul Haq analyses the structural and operational weaknesses of the existing tax system at federal level and suggests alternate solutions in the areas that require fundamental reforms.  This study, as updated in October 2024 argues that taxpayers have to deal with multiple tax agencies adding to their cost of doing business and the non-existence of tax-related benefits is the most neglected area of our discourse on reforms. It highlights the existing four-tier tax appellate system, how it has failed to deliver and the alternate system which can be adopted.  Download the Book

Read More »
Prime Plus is a quarterly report published by PRIME that provides in-depth analysis of economic policies and macro-economic indicators with our views on the outlook.


50+

Social Media Programs


100+

 
Events & Seminars


200+

 
Opinion Articles


100+

 
Reports


Subscribe to Prime Newsletter

I have long cherished the hope to see an economic thinktank funded by Pakistani money. With Asian and Pakistani experience, Prime carries the promise and relevance to provide quality research work on issues and opportunities besetting and eluding Pakistani economy.

Zahid Hussain

CEO, Borjan (Pvt) Ltd

It is rightfully said by elders that in your professional life, if you have the right person to guide you and motivate you, consider it as first step towards success. I started my career formally in research sector from the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy as intern back in 2014. At that time, though PRIME was in its early stages of development but thirst for learning was there. I remember my first interaction with Sir Salman Ali which I will say brings in that spark and motivation to learn and write. Starting from scratch at that time with weak basis of research but I was never stopped from writing something, never stopped from meeting new people and never stopped from thinking in a positive direction and grow as a researcher.

Syed Shujaat Ahmad

Consultant at Sustainable Development Institute (SDPI)

Many thinktanks tend to deal with the pie-in-the-sky concepts that are far from the realities of the economy – the small and medium enterprises. From the time of its inception, I have found PRIME willing to take on policy research that is pertinent to actual problems being faced by the business communities.

Jawad Aslam

CEO, Ansaar Management Company

Tax reforms should be a priority for Pakistan’s economic prosperity and PRIME is the only avant garde thinktank in Pakistan. With your generous help, we can advance this agenda.

Rizwan Rawji

Businessman, Economist and Philanthropist (Student of Dr. Arthur B Laffer, 1978 at the University of Southern California)



Speak to us

We have experts available for media comments on a range of economic issues such as taxes, trade policy, industrial policy and regulations. Please give us a call at +923330588885



For Businesses

We can undertake research & advocacy projects in the business and economics domain according to specific requirements as long as they do not conflict with our mission and editorial integrity.